Thanks to John Wilson for crunching the numbers. This first table represents all points collected by the top twenty in the Masters A field. To qualify for series overall standings, a rider must have competed in at least 3 races.

   Name       Alpenrose Hornings  Rainer    Astoria   Barton    Estacada  Total
1  Hendricks  26        26        13                  20        20        105
2  Cramer     14        16                  26        26                   82
3  McCaffery  11         7        26        16        14         8         82
4  Bannink    16        14        16        20                  16         82
5  Bravard    15                  14        10        16        26         81
6  Butler     10        12        17        15        15         9         78
7  Wilson M   12        13        11        14        13        14         77
8  Schindler   9         9        10        12        12        13         65
9  Bradway     8        20         5                  10        14         57
10 Leitheiser 13        15        14                                       42
11 Baker       2        11         8        11                  10         42
12 Mitchem     7        10         2         8         9         4         40
13 Benno       6                  20        13                             39
14 French      3         5         9         7                  12         36
15 Enderle               6         4                  11                   21
16 Hoyer                 8                   5         7                   20
17 Wilson J                        6         4                   5         15
18 Fletcher    1         4         3                             7         15
19 Voldengen   5                             2         6                   13
20 Junger                                              8         3         11

Next, the drop the two worst race results and see how everyone stacks up:

   Name       Alpenrose Hornings  Rainer    Astoria   Barton    Estacada  Total

1  Hendricks  26        26                            20        20         92
2  Cramer     14        16                  26        26                   82
3  Bravard    15                  14                  16        26         71
4  Bannink    16                  16        20                  16         68
5  McCaffery  11                  26        16        14                   67
6  Butler               12        17        15        15                   59
7  Wilson M             13                  14        13        14         54
8  Bradway     8        20                            10        14         52
9  Schindler                      10        12        12        13         47
10 Leitheiser 13        15        14                                       42
11 Baker                11         8        11                  10         40
12 Benno       6                  20        13                             39
13 Mitchem     7        10                   8         9                   34
14 French                5         9         7                  12         33
15 Enderle               6         4                  11                   21
16 Hoyer                 8                   5         7                   20
17 Wilson J                        6         4                   5         15
18 Fletcher    1         4         3                             7         15
19 Voldengen   5                             2         6                   13
20 Junger                                              8         3         11

So what’s it all mean? Tre Hendricks and Rich Cramer are the most likely for the overall. If either wins, they get the series. Bravard looked really strong at Estacada but that 21 point deficit in the drop-two chart is quite a gap. That means in order to win the series, Bravard would have to win at Hillsboro and would also need Hendricks finish worse than fourth. If several of the top riders have poor outings, things could get interesting at the top. The top 9 look pretty solid. As long as they finish within a few spots of their regular results for the season they’ll hold the top ten. If Ian Leitheiser shows up and finishes, he’ll likely round out that top ten.

I’d have to end up on the podium to score a top ten — so that ain’t gonna happen. However, I’m looking pretty good for a top 15. As long as I finish ahead of Gant Enderle and keep sight of John Wilson and Shane Fletcher, I should be able to scoot into 15th. However, I won’t count out Erik V. He eats up courses like Hillsboro and could pull out a pretty good result to vault into the top 15.

This would be a very bad race to DNF or even have a flat/mechanical/sillt spill.

I edited this post to credit the correct Wilson brother. I certainly didn’t want to give that other bother the number crunching glory. Sorry John.

6 Responses to “Cross Crusade Masters A roundup”

  1. John Wilson says:

    Brook, I know you just mixed up the Wilson brothers, but it was I, John Wilson, who cruched the data. My brother Mike does’t worry too much about this kind of stuff. Probabally becuase he can deliver the goods come race day. Me, I count my meger, fighting for table scrap, points.

  2. CC newbie says:

    Your chances for Top 15 next weekend are well and alive. For one, Scott Bradway won’t be there next weekend, because he’s racing in NJ in the USGS. See here: http://snowcurmudgeon.blogspot.com/. Good luck!

  3. Martin says:

    I wonder who else won’t be around. Ian? Will Butler be at the USGP with Sue? Benno?

    I guess there’s not really any sense in worrying about it. I just need to show up, race as fast as I can and it will work itself out.

  4. Scott Bradway says:

    Hey Brooke, thanks for posting this and thanks to John for the hard work but it is a lot more complicated than this. For example, according to the second table, if Schindler only scores 4 points on Sunday I would beat him in the standings (I won’t be there) but in reality that would let his 9 points from either Alpenrose or Hornings to kick in and he would beat me well not really because I will actually get 5 more points from Ranier. But hopefully you get the point. Trying to figure out the possibilities is harder than figuring out the BCS. All I know is it will take a miracle for me to pull out a top 10 overall, especially with double points!

    Good luck on Sunday, with any luck you all will get some good old fashioned mud!

  5. Brooke says:

    Scott, believe me, I know it’s complicated. It’s wide open as to who the top five and top then will be. I agree that it doesn’t look good for you staying in the top ten with the double points coming in to play. Good luck out in New Jersey!

  6. scott bradway says:

    Thanks Brooke. I had time to kill at the airport, so I tried to figure out the likely scenarios of me dropping out of the top ten. I threw it up on my blog: http://snowcurmudgeon.blogspot.com/ Although this was done with way too little sleep so I am sure there are some errors. Good luck to you on SUnday, looks like I am missing a mudder. We may get some light snow Sat. night!

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