Laatste Ronde

Thanks to John Wilson for crunching the numbers. This first table represents all points collected by the top twenty in the Masters A field. To qualify for series overall standings, a rider must have competed in at least 3 races.

   Name       Alpenrose Hornings  Rainer    Astoria   Barton    Estacada  Total

1  Hendricks  26        26        13                  20        20        105
2  Cramer     14        16                  26        26                   82
3  McCaffery  11         7        26        16        14         8         82
4  Bannink    16        14        16        20                  16         82
5  Bravard    15                  14        10        16        26         81
6  Butler     10        12        17        15        15         9         78
7  Wilson M   12        13        11        14        13        14         77
8  Schindler   9         9        10        12        12        13         65
9  Bradway     8        20         5                  10        14         57
10 Leitheiser 13        15        14                                       42
11 Baker       2        11         8        11                  10         42
12 Mitchem     7        10         2         8         9         4         40
13 Benno       6                  20        13                             39
14 French      3         5         9         7                  12         36
15 Enderle               6         4                  11                   21
16 Hoyer                 8                   5         7                   20
17 Wilson J                        6         4                   5         15
18 Fletcher    1         4         3                             7         15
19 Voldengen   5                             2         6                   13
20 Junger                                              8         3         11

Next, the drop the two worst race results and see how everyone stacks up:

   Name       Alpenrose Hornings  Rainer    Astoria   Barton    Estacada  Total

1  Hendricks  26        26                            20        20         92
2  Cramer     14        16                  26        26                   82
3  Bravard    15                  14                  16        26         71
4  Bannink    16                  16        20                  16         68
5  McCaffery  11                  26        16        14                   67
6  Butler               12        17        15        15                   59
7  Wilson M             13                  14        13        14         54
8  Bradway     8        20                            10        14         52
9  Schindler                      10        12        12        13         47
10 Leitheiser 13        15        14                                       42
11 Baker                11         8        11                  10         40
12 Benno       6                  20        13                             39
13 Mitchem     7        10                   8         9                   34
14 French                5         9         7                  12         33
15 Enderle               6         4                  11                   21
16 Hoyer                 8                   5         7                   20
17 Wilson J                        6         4                   5         15
18 Fletcher    1         4         3                             7         15
19 Voldengen   5                             2         6                   13
20 Junger                                              8         3         11

So what’s it all mean? Tre Hendricks and Rich Cramer are the most likely for the overall. If either wins, they get the series. Bravard looked really strong at Estacada but that 21 point deficit in the drop-two chart is quite a gap. That means in order to win the series, Bravard would have to win at Hillsboro and would also need Hendricks finish worse than fourth. If several of the top riders have poor outings, things could get interesting at the top. The top 9 look pretty solid. As long as they finish within a few spots of their regular results for the season they’ll hold the top ten. If Ian Leitheiser shows up and finishes, he’ll likely round out that top ten.

I’d have to end up on the podium to score a top ten — so that ain’t gonna happen. However, I’m looking pretty good for a top 15. As long as I finish ahead of Gant Enderle and keep sight of John Wilson and Shane Fletcher, I should be able to scoot into 15th. However, I won’t count out Erik V. He eats up courses like Hillsboro and could pull out a pretty good result to vault into the top 15.

This would be a very bad race to DNF or even have a flat/mechanical/sillt spill.

I edited this post to credit the correct Wilson brother. I certainly didn’t want to give that other bother the number crunching glory. Sorry John.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 12th, 2007 at 12:57 pm and is filed under Race Day. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.